Tuesday, June 23, 2026
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Aerial view of new vehicles waiting for shipment to overseas market at a port in Shanghai, China Saturday, May 9, 2026.
HONG KONG — China’s exports surged 14.1% in April from a year ago, the ministry said Saturday, defying the Iran war and lingering effects of higher U.S. tariffs.
The numbers were disclosed only days before a planned meeting next week between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping in Beijing.
That surpassed analyst projections and was a notable increase from March’s 2.5% year-on-year expansion. Exports to the U.S. climbed 11.3% year-on-year, reversing a 26.5% decrease in March.
Imports rose 25.3 percent, less than the 27.8 percent increase in March but still substantial.
The Trump-Xi encounter takes place at a moment when ties are dogged by a host of challenges, with efforts to end the conflict in Iran taking precedence over the typical sources of tension.
“We expect external demand overall to remain a solid driver of growth this year,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at Dutch bank ING, presumably led by China’s exports of semiconductors and vehicles.
In March, Chinese leaders established an annual economic growth target of between 4.5% and 5%, slightly below last year’s 5% increase and the lowest forecast since 1991. Its broader economy is projected to continue to be driven by export development, especially since exports from China to Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa have expanded over the previous months.
Exports from China to the U.S. have decreased in most months since Trump took office last year and slapped steeper tariffs and tougher limits on technology sharing. But trade with the U.S. is projected to improve this year, said Song, especially due to the base effects of severe losses from Trump’s tariff rises in 2025.
Besides efforts to negotiate a peace deal to end the Iran war, trade and export controls, including rare earths and U.S. technology restrictions on China, are likely to be on the agenda at the Trump-Xi summit after a year-long U.S.-China trade truce was reached late last year when the two leaders last met in South Korea.
HSBC analysts said in a recent research note there is little chance of big breakthroughs on export limits but the upcoming conference of leaders may offer "incremental" actions to ease trade tensions.
“Overall, it looks as though China has the advantage,” stated Capital Economics senior China economist Leah Fahy in a note. “Yet higher tariffs haven’t stopped China’s exports, which have continued to surge over the past year, and Beijing has shown it is willing to wait out U.S. pressure.”
The war in Iran is causing higher oil and fuel prices, which in turn are driving up manufacturing and logistics costs for many Chinese factories, while higher global inflation could weaken consumer purchasing power in China's overseas markets, said Wei Li, head of multi-asset investments at BNP Paribas Securities (China).
But China’s economy has been more resilient than others, thanks to its enormous oil reserves and more diverse sources of energy.
ING’s Song said China’s trade surplus, which hit a record high of about $1.2 trillion last year, could shrink for the entire year. Imports have been higher so far in 2026, but China is still dealing with a protracted housing recession that has damped spending and investment.
